The following report firstly examines Bali as a destination; afterwards focuses on risk and crisis that already Bali faced and the potential influence in tourism industry. Report examines two specific crises by Natural causes and by human actions. More extensively focuses on Geographical, Geological and Demographic conditions and natural disasters. Concerning, the crises based on human action it is focuses on criminality and health and safety. The element concerns the current situation in Bali and the latest events that happened. The last part of report is the recommendations about the preparation of the destination in order to avoid any future crisis or risk. Have been mentioned the crisis management and the strategies that are appropriate in case of risk to be taken. For further evidence have been used statistic charts and recent researches about the destination.
Bali and its tourism development in time.巴厘岛及其旅游发展及时。
Nowadays Bali is one of the most popular Indonesian islands for holidays. It is famous for its warm hospitality and for the unique places and attractions. The most impressing attractions are the exotic temples and palaces, traditional arts, customs and architecture. An amazing experience would be for a visitor the breathtaking sunsets, the exotic beaches, the tropical nature, the volcanoes and the jungles. Bali however, is famous for its aesthetic, cultural arts based on Hinduism. (bali-indonesia.com, 2018). Tourism in Bali is undoubtedly ancient; its tourism history starts from 8th century, later visits were happened on 11th, 16th and on 1597 when Dutch sailors arrived in the island, and that was the first time that Europeans visited the island. The ancient story says that plenty of the ship crew did not want to leave the island because of the power that the Balinese culture already had. (Syah, 2017, Tour, 2018). Bali as a destination is widely known and at the same time tourism demand is always growing. According to, Bali tourism information and research centre, the number of international tourist visit in past five years is raising increasingly. Recently, research based on international tourist visitation from 2016 reached 5 million tourists, exactly accounted 4.852.634 people, prevailing Australian 23.35%, Chinese 20,22%, Japanese 4,82%, British4,54% and Indian 3,66%. Furthermore, is estimated 3.5% for other nationalities such as American, French, Malaysian, Korean. (Balitourismdirectory.com, 2017).
如今，巴厘岛是印尼最受欢迎的度假岛屿之一。它以热情好客和独特的地方和景点而闻名。最令人印象深刻的景点是异国情调的寺庙和宫殿，传统艺术，风俗和建筑。对于游客来说，令人惊叹的日落、异国情调的海滩、热带自然、火山和丛林将是一种惊人的体验。然而，巴厘岛以其基于印度教的美学和文化艺术而闻名。(bali-indonesia.com, 2018)。巴厘岛的旅游业无疑是古老的;它的旅游历史从8世纪开始，后来的访问发生在11、16和1597年，当荷兰水手到达该岛，这是欧洲人第一次访问该岛。这个古老的故事说，很多船员都不想离开巴厘岛，因为巴厘文化已经拥有了强大的力量。(Syah, 2017, Tour, 2018)。巴厘岛是一个广为人知的旅游目的地，与此同时，旅游需求也一直在增长。根据巴厘岛旅游信息和研究中心的数据，过去5年，国际游客到访的数量越来越多。近期，基于2016年国际旅游人次的研究达到500万人次，准确占比为4.852634万人，其中澳大利亚占23.35%，中国占20、22%，日本占4、82%，英国占4、54%，印度占3、66%。另外，美国人、法国人、马来西亚人、韩国人等其他国家的人占3.5%。(Balitourismdirectory.com, 2017)。
Potential crises that may be generated in the destination by natural causes.目的地可能因自然原因产生的潜在危机。
Geographical, Geological and Demographic Conditions地理、地质和人口情况
Indonesia’s location is in a disaster prone area, because of its geographical, geological and demographic conditions could be considered as “Laboratory of Disasters”. (Unescap.org, 2013). Specifically, Bali has high level of disaster as well, because of tropical climate and its location. Taking into account the location the most risky areas are in tropic zones and they are affected by natural disasters as tropical storms, flooding, drought, earthquakes, tsunamis and other cataclysmic events. Plenty of coastal areas in Klungkung have impacted of marine abrasion because of the climate change and the change of the ocean currents in Southern Bali. The every year’s rising seawater levels have affected the local’s life and preoccupying of a future storm tidal surges. (Preventionweb.net, 2015).
Indonesia is the largest country of the world which is entirely composed of islands. Indonesia and its islands have been impacted in the past and before months, (October of 2018) from natural disasters. Constantly, the islands are under the risk of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, floods and tsunamis. The residents of the islands and consequently the tourists have been suffered of these terrible occurrences, the poor resources and the political instability cannot support completely the country and the residents. According to researches, 2004, 2016 and 2018 were the most damaging dates of tsunamis and earthquakes in Indonesia. (Save the Children, Voices from the Field blog, 2018). Recent statistics demonstrate that Indonesia for 2019 will be in jeopardy of tsunamis and earthquakes. (See Appendix 1), (Risk index of natural disasters in Indonesia for 2019, 2018).
Additionally, after the latest earthquake and tsunami event in Indonesia a volcano erupted in Sulawesi Island, just a few days later. The eruption scatters volcanic ash 20,000 feet into the sky. The growing concern is how the volcano ash in atmosphere will potentially affect the environment or if can be the reason of a future earthquake or tsunami. (VICE News, 2018). Taking into consideration the previous tragic natural disasters is possible and at the same time expectable the concern of a similar event, not only for the local residents but also for the government and afterwards the tourist’s interest. The geological phenomena render the islands risky, furthermore, the residents of the island and the government waits for more potential alike natural events. The environment of the islands is affected by these events and the current situation after the tragic disasters could make the potential visitation unstable. The following statistic chart is about the tourists’ visitation of the previous year in Indonesia from January of 2017 to July of 2018. (See Appendix 2) (Tradingeconomics.com, 2018).
2. Potential crises that may be generated in the destination by human actions.2. 人类活动在目的地可能产生的潜在危机。
Crimes and Criminality犯罪和犯罪
Bali is one of the most famous overseas tourist destinations however; it has a high level of reported crimes that happened to locals and tourists either. According to researches, for 2016 the total number of crimes in Bali was 3,347 of different cases. The level of criminality is estimated 10 percent, however it is still considered as an unsafe place. (Hambali et al., 2017). An important issue that residents of Bali have to face is the police. Testimonies of locals reveal that police is mistrustful and they afraid of them. It is supported that the police officers will act only if they will earn money by blackmailing and on the other hand, if they act it will not be immediately. (Fugly-bali.org, 2004). Concerning the usual crimes at tourists, the destination is reported about alcohol poisoning, mostly in outside bars and resorts. A really famous local drink, named “arak” made from rice or palm, is used to offer at tourists as a traditional drink but, it is responsible for deaths and injuries when it is mixed with poisonous chemicals. (Planet, 2018). Additionally, Bali citizens and travelers as well, have been victims of robberies. Robberies and thieves is a major problem for Bali, the local authorities warning people to be really careful with their own staff, bags, wallets and other valuables. (Planet, 2018, Fugly-bali.org, 2004, Scti.com.au, 2018). Criminality is generally a major problem in Bali, the residents are suffering for years and the tourists become victims most of the times. The destination after all is still famous, however, at the same time, well known are the danger and the risks that the travelers will probably face with their arrival.
然而，巴厘岛是最著名的海外旅游目的地之一;当地居民和游客的犯罪率也很高。据研究，2016年巴厘岛的犯罪案件总数为3347起。犯罪水平估计为10%，但仍被认为是一个不安全的地方。(Hambali等人，2017)。巴厘岛居民必须面对的一个重要问题是警察。当地人的证词显示，警察不信任他们，他们害怕他们。有人认为，警察只有在通过勒索赚钱的情况下才会采取行动，但另一方面，如果他们采取行动，也不会立即行动。(Fugly-bali.org, 2004)。关于游客的常见犯罪，据报道，目的地是酒精中毒，主要是在酒吧和度假村外。一种非常著名的当地饮料，名为“阿拉克”，由大米或棕榈制成，作为一种传统饮料提供给游客，但如果它与有毒化学物质混合，就会造成伤亡。(行星,2018)。此外，巴厘岛市民和游客也曾成为抢劫的受害者。抢劫和小偷是巴厘岛的一个主要问题，当地政府警告人们要小心自己的员工、包、钱包和其他贵重物品。(地球科学，2018,Fugly-bali.org, 2004, Scti.com.au, 2018)犯罪通常是巴厘岛的一个主要问题，当地居民多年来一直在受苦，而游客大多成为受害者。目的地毕竟还是著名的，然而，与此同时，众所周知的是危险和风险，旅行者可能会面临他们的到来。
Health and Safety健康和安全
Health and safety in Bali is in a crucial situation, plenty of diseases as Cholera and Malaria have been reported. Constantly locals throw rubbish around the tourist areas which has as result the rise of diseases; this is a scourge for many years. (Fugly-bali.org, 2004). Bali has a naturally beauty and is a really famous destination, however, plenty of diseases and death instances are considered, therefore the numerous of tourists that visit it make the possibility of spread disease higher. In case of a disease in Bali, if the reaction is not correctly or immediately handled could lead even to death. Some of the most common diseases are Dengue fever, Malaria, HIV AIDS, Tuberculosis, and Diarrhea. (Setiya, 2018). Health is an important factor in Bali, locals are suffers and most of the times tourists as well. The visitors have to be prepared, to do the appropriate vaccines and be really careful about what they eat or drink. According to Australian government statistics (2012), Bali was the most famous holiday’s destination, therefore the doctors gave important advices about the Indonesia risks and specifically the dengue fever, which it was quiet dangerous and in a high level in June of 2012. The following statistic chart is about the seasonal variation in dengue notifications by place. (See Appendix 3), (Health.wa.gov.au, 2012). Unfortunately, the statistics are still in high level for both criminality and health cases. Those really important cases are considered as weaknesses and could affect in Balinese tourism industry. Generally the current situation that the destination is forced to face is the diseases, crimes, the poor locals and neighborhoods, the poor resources, the mistrustful police and the natural disasters.
巴厘岛的健康和安全正处于关键时刻，已经报告了霍乱和疟疾等大量疾病。当地人经常在旅游区乱扔垃圾，这导致了疾病的增加;这是多年来的祸害。(Fugly-bali.org, 2004)。巴厘岛有自然之美，是一个非常著名的目的地，但是考虑到很多疾病和死亡的例子，所以很多游客来这里，使得疾病传播的可能性更高。如果巴厘岛发生疾病，如果反应不正确或不立即处理，甚至可能导致死亡。最常见的疾病有登革热、疟疾、艾滋病、肺结核和腹泻。(Setiya, 2018)。健康是巴厘岛的一个重要因素，当地人很痛苦，大多数时候游客也一样。访客必须做好准备，接种适当的疫苗，并对他们的饮食非常小心。根据澳大利亚政府的统计(2012)，巴厘岛是最著名的度假目的地，因此医生对印尼的风险给出了重要的建议，特别是登革热，它非常危险，在2012年6月处于高水平。以下是各地区登革热呈报个案的季节性变化统计图。(见附录3)，(Health.wa.gov.au, 2012)。不幸的是，犯罪和健康案件的统计数字仍然很高。那些真正重要的案件被认为是弱点，可能会影响巴厘岛旅游业。一般来说，目的地被迫面对的现状是疾病，犯罪，贫穷的当地人和社区，贫穷的资源，不信任的警察和自然灾害。
Recommendations – Conclusion推荐- - - - - -结论
As it is mentioned above, Bali has already faced crisis about natural disasters and criminality, however the potential or further crises are threatening the destination. The management of these special cases is necessary, the prevention in order to avoid any future crises is appropriate. According to Lee and Harrald (1999, p. 184) states that “natural disasters can disrupt the supply and distribution chains for even the best prepared businesses”. A major problem for a destination in case of crisis is the non prepared actions or strategies. Organizations and generally the Government that are not well prepared are not capable to operate a difficult issue. Crises could have plenty of ‘faces’ they are different and they need a different way of actions. Parsons (1999) suggests three types of crises, the Immediate Crises, that there is at least or no warning that the organizations are not capable to find and solve the problem before the crisis come, Emerging Crises, a slower in development crisis that may be capable to face, stop or limited by organizational action and Sustained crises, an option that the crisis could last for weeks, months or even for years. Every strategy has to deal with the circumstances and the pressure time. According to Burnett (1998) outlines a classification matrix, (See Appendix 4) which is matrix based on threat level high versus low, many versus few, time pressure intense versus minimal and degree control high versus low. Based on Burnett (1998) suggestion cases that found in level 1 or level 0 would be not classified as a crisis but would be part of the normal strategic management. The issue that will be observed in level 4 and under the time pressure is a challenging issue and the degree of control is low.
A strategic plan has to be ready before the crisis comes; on the other hand an option of a plan is to confront the issue that occurs. Every plan has to begin with clear objectives that will protect the individuals; a plan has to be clearly about the actions that will be taken. Honestly is a really important key before the actions and people has to be informed. Communication with media and the everyday updating news will avoid any rumors. The media are useful in case of crisis to inform and to help extensively to improve the image. In any case of crisis the publicity is a high level of marketing and promotion. (Inc.com, 2018). To sum up plans strategic plan is an important key for any organization and the government.