金融学英语翻译Why bond funds are suddenly hot
Mutual fund companies, just like individual investors, are prone to following the herd. So it's not surprising that, since bond funds attracted nearly $400 billion in 2009--versus a net $9 billion outflow of capital in stock funds--new bond funds are springing up to absorb the surging demand. So far this year, 16 fixed-income funds have launched, according to investment research firm Morningstar, compared to 14 new stock products.
That difference sounds tiny, but it marks a notable swing from 2009, when asset management firms rolled out 179 stock funds and just 72 bond products. To understand how dramatic the change in investment strategy has become, consider this: launches of domestic stock funds outpaced taxable bond funds by more than two to one last year.
Now that bonds are the asset du jour, though, money managers are all too happy to jump on the trend, says mutual fund consultant Geoff Bobroff. "The addition of bond funds is a lagging indicator," he says. "It's following the market." Morningstar analyst Eric Jacobson agrees. "Across the asset management industry, companies that didn't have highly developed bond resources are thinking, we need that," he says. "Even if we have it, we need to be in that space more."
Several of the new funds come from companies that are hardly dilettantes in the bond world. DoubleLine Capital, a fixed income shop headed by former TCW star Jeffrey Gundlach, just launched DoubleLine Total Return, which focuses on mortgage-backed securities, and DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income. BlackRock (BLK, Fortune 500) also rolled out a new fund, BlackRock Fund Multi Sector Bond, which will be helmed by Curtis Arledge, the CIO of fundamental fixed income.
The big question is why are bonds suddenly sexy? Blockbuster returns aren't an answer. Bonds dramatically underperformed stocks last year. In 2009, the S&P 500 returned 27%, crushing the Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index's 6% return.
The allure has more to do with psychology than profit-seeking. The retail-investing crowd, says Jacobson, is still reeling from the beating that stocks took in 2008. "In the wake of the financial crisis, people are more conscious of the role of bonds in their portfolios," he says.
Institutions, too, are rethinking their exposure to stocks after enduring two bear markets in a single decade, says Arledge. "Investors had large asset allocation to equities," he says. "Some were underinvested in fixed income."
The sea change in demographics also supports the shift to fixed income. Tim Bond (no bias), head of asset allocation at Barclays, wrote in a recent note that the price-to-earnings ratios of stocks are likely to shrink "due to dwindling support for equities, as the boomer generation ages into retirement."
Given the secular trend, it's easy to see why money management firms would invest in bond offerings--but it's less apparent that it's a good move for investors. In fact, market strategists have turned bearish on bonds in recent months due to concerns that the Fed will hike interest rates. When rates go up, lower yielding bonds look less attractive, bringing down their prices and cutting into fund returns.
While most economists think the Fed won't act for a while, fears of rising rates can push down bond prices ahead of any actual policy changes. That's part of the reason why Arledge's new fund will focus on shorter duration securities with lower interest rate risk, he says.
Meanwhile, once- and even still-hot stock selectors are trying to figure out why they're no longer popular. "Your straightforward equities manager is having a hard time gathering assets," Tjornehoj says. "Investors are just not beating down [their] doors looking for new products
金融学英语翻译债券基金为何突然走俏
投资者青睐债券，主要是出于心理原因，而不是高回报。金融危机过后，人们在投资上更偏于多元化。
2009年，债券基金吸引了近4000亿美元，之后，新的债券基金正如雨后春笋般产生，以满足不断上涨的需求，而同期股票基金中资本外流的净值为90亿美元。这也不足为奇，因为和个人投资者一样，共同基金公司也喜欢随大流。据投资研究公司晨星（Morningstar）称，今年迄今已新增16支固定收益基金，而新增股票产品仅14种。
粗粗看来，两者差距甚小，但与2009年相比，其间变化可谓巨大。2009年，资金管理公司推出了179只股票基金，而仅推出了72种债券产品。要想了解投资策略的变化之大，不妨看看这个数字：去年，美国国内推出的股票基金数量，比应纳税债券基金的两倍还多。
共同基金顾问杰夫•博布罗夫（Geoff Bobroff）表示，现在的畅销资产是债券，基金经理们自然乐得紧跟潮流，不过，博布罗夫说道：“债券基金的增加是滞后指标。它不过是在追市。”晨星分析师埃里克•雅各布森（Eric Jacobson）同意上述观点。雅各布森说道：“在资产管理领域，那些债券基金较少的公司觉得他们需要推出债券基金；而即使我们拥有很多债券基金，我们仍需推出更多此类基金。”
新推出的几支基金，都来自在债券界资历颇深的公司。DoubleLine Capital是一家固定收益基金公司，由前TCW集团明星基金经理杰弗裡•冈拉克（Jeffrey Gundlach）掌舵，该公司近来推出专注于按揭担保证券的DoubleLine整体回报基金（DoubleLine Total Return），以及DoubleLine新兴市场固定收益基金（DoubleLine Emerging Markets Fixed Income）。而贝莱德（BlackRock）也新推出了贝莱德综合债券基金（BlackRock Fund Multi Sector Bond），该基金将由固定收益部门首席投资官柯蒂斯•阿里奇（Curtis Arledge）管理。
但问题是债券为何突然大受追捧？要知道，其回报并不算高。去年债券的回报率大大低于股票。2009年，标准普尔500（S&P 500）股票的回报率是27%，远高于巴克莱美国综合指数（Barclays U.S. Aggregate Index）6%的回报率。
投资者青睐债券，主要是出于心理方面的原因，而不是为了逐利。雅各布森表示，2008年股市遭受的重创，令散户投资者至今心有余悸。他说道：“金融危机过后，人们更加意识到债券在投资组合中的作用。”
阿里奇表示，过去10年内出现了两次熊市，现在，机构投资者也正在重新考虑对股票的投资。他说道：“投资者将大量资金分配在股票上。有些投资者对固定收益产品投资不足。”
人口结构方面的巨大变化，也是固定收益投资增加的原因之一。持中立态度的巴克莱（Barclays）资产调配负责人蒂姆•邦德（Tim Bond）最近写道，股票市盈率可能下降，因为“随着婴儿潮一代陆续进入退休年龄，人们对股票的投资减少”。
考虑到长期趋势，我们很容易理解资产管理公司为何投资债券，不过，这一举措对投资者的好处似乎不太明显。事实上，最近几个月，市场策略师已经开始看空债券投资，因为他们担心美联储（Fed）将上调利率。而一旦利率上涨，收益较低的债券对投资者的吸引力将下降，这会拉低债券价格并损害基金收益。
大部分经济学家都认为，美联储不会很快采取行动，不过，由于人们担心利率上涨，这可能使得债券价格在政策真正改变前就开始下跌。蒂姆•邦德表示，这也是阿里奇的新基金关注较短期证券的原因之一，因为此类证券利率风险较小。
与此同时，荐股人都在努力思考为何自己不再吃香，他们当中有些人曾风光一时，还有一些现在仍然当红。资深分析师托內霍伊（Tjornehoj）说道：“专注于股票投资的基金经理现在很难筹集到资金，因为投资者眼下无意寻找新的股票产品。”