代写英语市场调研报告:Greenspan, again: The market

发布时间:2011-05-22 15:13:46 论文编辑:第一代写网

“市场会自救”,格林斯潘老调重弹

格林斯潘这位大师仍然深信艾茵•兰德的哲学。

代写英语市场研究报告让市场自由运行。如果它搞砸了,它会知道如何自我纠正的。
    这就是16日早上艾伦•格林斯潘在美国对外关系委员会(Council of Foreign Relations)上宣扬的主题。格林斯潘曾在1987年到2006年间担任美联储主席。他表示,从根本上来说,政府应该让出道路,让市场和企业来驱动经济恢复的火车头。
    在经济的鼎盛时期,随着不动产价格的猛涨,大多数美国人的财富都在上涨,如今这种日子早已离我们远去了。今天美国经济正面临着令人不安的高失业率——几乎高达10%。而且美国人民也发现,随着房地产价格跌至新低,他们的财富也在缩水。
    在2008年金融危机之前的几年里,美国各大银行纷纷通过按揭贷款证券化来促进房地产市场的繁荣发展,当年格林斯潘就频频抛出自由市场的论调,后来美国的金融系统近乎崩溃,按揭贷款证券化可谓“功不可没”。因此,这位前美联储主席给出的自由市场哲学是否已经失效了,这的确是个值得提出的问题。
    的确,美国现在正面临着巨额的赤字,近年来美国的赤字已经超过了1万亿美元。至少从长期看来,美国需要更多的财政规范。而且就第一次财政刺激计划的8000亿美元资金而言,这些资金可能太少了,其次,它可能用错了地方,主要被用在了促进消费,而不是促进投资上。
    不过从短期来看,采取强势行为也许比完全不作为更可取。
    美国企业目前正在袖手旁观。根据标准普尔(S&P)的数据,美国企业连续七个季度保持了创纪录的现金余额。格林斯潘今天表示,第一轮刺激计划并不像预期的那样成功,而且由于各企业都按兵不动,因而也在一定程度上抵消了刺激计划的效果。
    与此同时,奥巴马政府提出了另一套方案,这套方案本质上等于第二轮的经济刺激计划,不仅包含了各种企业税收减免,而且还计划斥资500亿美元,新建并翻修公路以及其它基础设施。许多经济学家认为奥巴马的第一轮刺激计划的规模还不够大。他们认为其规模应该定在1.2万亿到1.3万亿美元之间。第二轮刺激计划使政府着眼于投资性支出,而不是消费性支出,因此它似乎是处在正确的轨道上——如果它最终获得国会批准的话。不过有些经济学家表示,这一轮刺激计划的规模太小了,无法使失业率下降到萧条期前的5%至6%的水平上。
    在这一点上,格林斯潘却表示:“做得少比做得多好。”
    如果我们能够忍受一个缓慢而长期的增长的话,那么格林斯潘的观点是可取的。不过在美国国民经济度过了惨淡的三年之后,如果我们希望看到经济迅速恢复,那么也许美国政府应该有所作为,而不是袖手旁观。
    译者:王雪菲
Greenspan, again: The market will work itself out
The Maestro still believes in Ayn Rand.
    Let the free market play. If it messes up, it will somehow know how to correct itself.
    That was the general theme former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan trumpeted this morning at the Council of Foreign Relations. The former chairman, /who ran the Fed from 1987 to 2006, said government should basically get out of the way and let markets and businesses drive the recovery.
    Today we're far from the heydays where most Americans saw their wealth rise as real estate prices surged, while the market was as free as can be. Today the U.S economy is facing unnervingly high unemployment of nearly 10%. Americans are seeing their wealth vanish as home prices plummet to new lows.
    In the years leading up to the financial crisis of 2008, Greenspan was all about the free market as the big banks fueled the real estate boom with mortgage securitization, which in turn contributed to near collapse of America's financial system. Now it's only fair to wonder if the free market philosophies that the former chairman gives are perhaps played out.
    It's true that the U.S. is facing huge deficits, exceeding $1 trillion in recent years. For the long-term at least, there needs to be way more fiscal discipline. And it's also true the first stimulus of more than $800 billion was perhaps either too small or misguided, focused more on consumption than investment.
  代写英语市场研究报告  But for the short-term, acting aggressively might be better than not acting at all.
    US companies are sitting on their hands. For the seventh consecutive quarter, companies are holding record cash balances, according to S&P. Greenspan today said the first stimulus wasn't as successful as expected, and the fact that companies are standing still has helped counter the effects of the spending package.
    Meanwhile, the Obama administration has proposed what's essentially a second stimulus full of business tax breaks and a $50 billion plan to build and rebuild roads and other infrastructure. Many economists didn't think Obama's first stimulus was big enough. They thought it should have stood $1.2 to $1.3 trillion. This second try -- if it passes through Congress -- appears to be on the right track as far as focusing government on investment rather than consumer spending. But it's much too small to /reduce the unemployment rate to the 5% to 6% level prior to the recession, some economists say.
    Now Greenspan says, as this point, "it's better doing less than more."
    That's okay if a slow and long recovery is something we all can stomach. If a quicker recovery is what's preferred following about three years of lackluster growth, then perhaps it's better for government to act rather than stand still.
 

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